GIS-FA: an approach to integrating thematic maps, factor-analytic, and envirotyping for cultivar targeting.

KEY MESSAGE: We propose an "enviromics" prediction model for recommending cultivars based on thematic maps aimed at decision-makers. Parsimonious methods that capture genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) in multi-environment trials (MET) are important in breeding programs. Understanding the causes and factors of GEI allows the utilization of genotype adaptations in the target population of environments through environmental features and factor-analytic (FA) models. Here, we present a novel predictive breeding approach called GIS-FA, which integrates geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, FA models, partial least squares (PLS) regression, and enviromics to predict phenotypic performance in untested environments. The GIS-FA approach enables: (i) the prediction of the phenotypic performance of tested genotypes in untested environments, (ii) the selection of the best-ranking genotypes based on their overall performance and stability using the FA selection tools, and (iii) the creation of thematic maps showing overall or pairwise performance and stability for decision-making. We exemplify the usage of the GIS-FA approach using two datasets of rice [Oryza sativa (L.)] and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] in MET spread over tropical areas. In summary, our novel predictive method allows the identification of new breeding scenarios by pinpointing groups of environments where genotypes demonstrate superior predicted performance. It also facilitates and optimizes cultivar recommendations by utilizing thematic maps.

Enviromic-based kernels may optimize resource allocation with multi-trait multi-environment genomic prediction for tropical Maize.

BACKGROUND: Success in any genomic prediction platform is directly dependent on establishing a representative training set. This is a complex task, even in single-trait single-environment conditions and tends to be even more intricated wherein additional information from envirotyping and correlated traits are considered. Here, we aimed to design optimized training sets focused on genomic prediction, considering multi-trait multi-environment trials, and how those methods may increase accuracy reducing phenotyping costs. For that, we considered single-trait multi-environment trials and multi-trait multi-environment trials for three traits: grain yield, plant height, and ear height, two datasets, and two cross-validation schemes. Next, two strategies for designing optimized training sets were conceived, first considering only the genomic by environment by trait interaction (GET), while a second including large-scale environmental data (W, enviromics) as genomic by enviromic by trait interaction (GWT). The effective number of individuals (genotypes × environments × traits) was assumed as those that represent at least 98% of each kernel (GET or GWT) variation, in which those individuals were then selected by a genetic algorithm based on prediction error variance criteria to compose an optimized training set for genomic prediction purposes. RESULTS: The combined use of genomic and enviromic data efficiently designs optimized training sets for genomic prediction, improving the response to selection per dollar invested by up to 145% when compared to the model without enviromic data, and even more when compared to cross validation scheme with 70% of training set or pure phenotypic selection. Prediction models that include G × E or enviromic data + G × E yielded better prediction ability. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that a genomic by enviromic by trait interaction kernel associated with genetic algorithms is efficient and can be proposed as a promising approach to designing optimized training sets for genomic prediction when the variance-covariance matrix of traits is available. Additionally, great improvements in the genetic gains per dollar invested were observed, suggesting that a good allocation of resources can be deployed by using the proposed approach.

Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding.

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050-2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype-environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.

Envirome-wide associations enhance multi-year genome-based prediction of historical wheat breeding data.

Linking high-throughput environmental data (enviromics) to genomic prediction (GP) is a cost-effective strategy for increasing selection intensity under genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E). This study developed a data-driven approach based on Environment-Phenotype Association (EPA) aimed at recycling important G × E information from historical breeding data. EPA was developed in two applications: (1) scanning a secondary source of genetic variation, weighted from the shared reaction-norms of past-evaluated genotypes and (2) pinpointing weights of the similarity among trial-sites (locations), given the historical impact of each envirotyping data variable for a given site. These results were then used as a dimensionality reduction strategy, integrating historical data to feed multi-environment GP models, which led to the development of four new G × E kernels considering genomics, enviromics, and EPA outcomes. The wheat trial data used included 36 locations, 8 years, and three target populations of environments (TPEs) in India. Four prediction scenarios and six kernel models within/across TPEs were tested. Our results suggest that the conventional GBLUP, without enviromic data or when omitting EPA, is inefficient in predicting the performance of wheat lines in future years. Nevertheless, when EPA was introduced as an intermediary learning step to reduce the dimensionality of the G × E kernels while connecting phenotypic and environmental-wide variation, a significant enhancement of G × E prediction accuracy was evident. EPA revealed that the effect of seasonality makes strategies such as "covariable selection" unfeasible because G × E is year-germplasm specific. We propose that the EPA effectively serves as a "reinforcement learner" algorithm capable of uncovering the effect of seasonality over the reaction-norms, with the benefits of better forecasting the similarities between past and future trialing sites. EPA combines the benefits of dimensionality reduction while reducing the uncertainty of genotype-by-year predictions and increasing the resolution of GP for the genotype-specific level.

Genome and Environment Based Prediction Models and Methods of Complex Traits Incorporating Genotype × Environment Interaction.

Genomic-enabled prediction models are of paramount importance for the successful implementation of genomic selection (GS) based on breeding values. As opposed to animal breeding, plant breeding includes extensive multienvironment and multiyear field trial data. Hence, genomic-enabled prediction models should include genotype × environment (G × E) interaction, which most of the time increases the prediction performance when the response of lines are different from environment to environment. In this chapter, we describe a historical timeline since 2012 related to advances of the GS models that take into account G × E interaction. We describe theoretical and practical aspects of those GS models, including the gains in prediction performance when including G × E structures for both complex continuous and categorical scale traits. Then, we detailed and explained the main G × E genomic prediction models for complex traits measured in continuous and noncontinuous (categorical) scale. Related to G × E interaction models this review also examine the analyses of the information generated with high-throughput phenotype data (phenomic) and the joint analyses of multitrait and multienvironment field trial data that is also employed in the general assessment of multitrait G × E interaction. The inclusion of nongenomic data in increasing the accuracy and biological reliability of the G × E approach is also outlined. We show the recent advances in large-scale envirotyping (enviromics), and how the use of mechanistic computational modeling can derive the crop growth and development aspects useful for predicting phenotypes and explaining G × E.

Enviromic Assembly Increases Accuracy and Reduces Costs of the Genomic Prediction for Yield Plasticity in Maize.

Quantitative genetics states that phenotypic variation is a consequence of the interaction between genetic and environmental factors. Predictive breeding is based on this statement, and because of this, ways of modeling genetic effects are still evolving. At the same time, the same refinement must be used for processing environmental information. Here, we present an "enviromic assembly approach," which includes using ecophysiology knowledge in shaping environmental relatedness into whole-genome predictions (GP) for plant breeding (referred to as enviromic-aided genomic prediction, E-GP). We propose that the quality of an environment is defined by the core of environmental typologies and their frequencies, which describe different zones of plant adaptation. From this, we derived markers of environmental similarity cost-effectively. Combined with the traditional additive and non-additive effects, this approach may better represent the putative phenotypic variation observed across diverse growing conditions (i.e., phenotypic plasticity). Then, we designed optimized multi-environment trials coupling genetic algorithms, enviromic assembly, and genomic kinships capable of providing in-silico realization of the genotype-environment combinations that must be phenotyped in the field. As proof of concept, we highlighted two E-GP applications: (1) managing the lack of phenotypic information in training accurate GP models across diverse environments and (2) guiding an early screening for yield plasticity exerting optimized phenotyping efforts. Our approach was tested using two tropical maize sets, two types of enviromics assembly, six experimental network sizes, and two types of optimized training set across environments. We observed that E-GP outperforms benchmark GP in all scenarios, especially when considering smaller training sets. The representativeness of genotype-environment combinations is more critical than the size of multi-environment trials (METs). The conventional genomic best-unbiased prediction (GBLUP) is inefficient in predicting the quality of a yet-to-be-seen environment, while enviromic assembly enabled it by increasing the accuracy of yield plasticity predictions. Furthermore, we discussed theoretical backgrounds underlying how intrinsic envirotype-phenotype covariances within the phenotypic records can impact the accuracy of GP. The E-GP is an efficient approach to better use environmental databases to deliver climate-smart solutions, reduce field costs, and anticipate future scenarios.

Optimizing Genomic-Enabled Prediction in Small-Scale Maize Hybrid Breeding Programs: A Roadmap Review.

The usefulness of genomic prediction (GP) for many animal and plant breeding programs has been highlighted for many studies in the last 20 years. In maize breeding programs, mostly dedicated to delivering more highly adapted and productive hybrids, this approach has been proved successful for both large- and small-scale breeding programs worldwide. Here, we present some of the strategies developed to improve the accuracy of GP in tropical maize, focusing on its use under low budget and small-scale conditions achieved for most of the hybrid breeding programs in developing countries. We highlight the most important outcomes obtained by the University of São Paulo (USP, Brazil) and how they can improve the accuracy of prediction in tropical maize hybrids. Our roadmap starts with the efforts for germplasm characterization, moving on to the practices for mating design, and the selection of the genotypes that are used to compose the training population in field phenotyping trials. Factors including population structure and the importance of non-additive effects (dominance and epistasis) controlling the desired trait are also outlined. Finally, we explain how the source of the molecular markers, environmental, and the modeling of genotype-environment interaction can affect the accuracy of GP. Results of 7 years of research in a public maize hybrid breeding program under tropical conditions are discussed, and with the great advances that have been made, we find that what is yet to come is exciting. The use of open-source software for the quality control of molecular markers, implementing GP, and envirotyping pipelines may reduce costs in an efficient computational manner. We conclude that exploring new models/tools using high-throughput phenotyping data along with large-scale envirotyping may bring more resolution and realism when predicting genotype performances. Despite the initial costs, mostly for genotyping, the GP platforms in combination with these other data sources can be a cost-effective approach for predicting the performance of maize hybrids for a large set of growing conditions.

EnvRtype: a software to interplay enviromics and quantitative genomics in agriculture.

Envirotyping is an essential technique used to unfold the nongenetic drivers associated with the phenotypic adaptation of living organisms. Here, we introduce the EnvRtype R package, a novel toolkit developed to interplay large-scale envirotyping data (enviromics) into quantitative genomics. To start a user-friendly envirotyping pipeline, this package offers: (1) remote sensing tools for collecting (get_weather and extract_GIS functions) and processing ecophysiological variables (processWTH function) from raw environmental data at single locations or worldwide; (2) environmental characterization by typing environments and profiling descriptors of environmental quality (env_typing function), in addition to gathering environmental covariables as quantitative descriptors for predictive purposes (W_matrix function); and (3) identification of environmental similarity that can be used as an enviromic-based kernel (env_typing function) in whole-genome prediction (GP), aimed at increasing ecophysiological knowledge in genomic best-unbiased predictions (GBLUP) and emulating reaction norm effects (get_kernel and kernel_model functions). We highlight literature mining concepts in fine-tuning envirotyping parameters for each plant species and target growing environments. We show that envirotyping for predictive breeding collects raw data and processes it in an eco-physiologically smart way. Examples of its use for creating global-scale envirotyping networks and integrating reaction-norm modeling in GP are also outlined. We conclude that EnvRtype provides a cost-effective envirotyping pipeline capable of providing high quality enviromic data for a diverse set of genomic-based studies, especially for increasing accuracy in GP across untested growing environments.

Nonlinear kernels, dominance, and envirotyping data increase the accuracy of genome-based prediction in multi-environment trials.

Modern whole-genome prediction (WGP) frameworks that focus on multi-environment trials (MET) integrate large-scale genomics, phenomics, and envirotyping data. However, the more complex the statistical model, the longer the computational processing times, which do not always result in accuracy gains. We investigated the use of new kernel methods and modeling structures involving genomics and nongenomic sources of variation in two MET maize data sets. Five WGP models were considered, advancing in complexity from a main-effect additive model (A) to more complex structures, including dominance deviations (D), genotype × environment interaction (AE and DE), and the reaction-norm model using environmental covariables (W) and their interaction with A and D (AW + DW). A combination of those models built with three different kernel methods, Gaussian kernel (GK), Deep kernel (DK), and the benchmark genomic best linear-unbiased predictor (GBLUP/GB), was tested under three prediction scenarios: newly developed hybrids (CV1), sparse MET conditions (CV2), and new environments (CV0). GK and DK outperformed GB in prediction accuracy and reduction of computation time (~up to 20%) under all model-kernel scenarios. GK was more efficient in capturing the variation due to A + AE and D + DE effects and translated it into accuracy gains (~up to 85% compared with GB). DK provided more consistent predictions, even for more complex structures such as W + AW + DW. Our results suggest that DK and GK are more efficient in translating model complexity into accuracy, and more suitable for including dominance and reaction-norm effects in a biologically accurate and faster way.

A novel way to validate UAS-based high-throughput phenotyping protocols using in silico experiments for plant breeding purposes.

KEY MESSAGE: It is possible to make inferences regarding the feasibility and applicability of plant high-throughput phenotyping via computer simulations. Protocol validation has been a key challenge to the establishment of high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) in breeding programs. We add to this matter by proposing an innovative way for designing and validating aerial imagery-based HTP approaches with in silico 3D experiments for plant breeding purposes. The algorithm is constructed following a pipeline composed of the simulation of phenotypic values, three-dimensional modeling of trials, and image rendering. Our tool is exemplified by testing a set of experimental setups that are of interest in the context of maize breeding using a comprehensive case study. We report on how the choice of (percentile of) points in dense clouds, the experimental repeatability (heritability), the treatment variance (genetic variability), and the flight altitude affect the accuracy of high-throughput plant height estimation based on conventional structure-from-motion (SfM) and multi-view stereo (MVS) pipelines. The evaluation of both the algorithm and the case study was driven by comparisons of the computer-simulated (ground truth) and the HTP-estimated values using correlations, regressions, and similarity indices. Our results showed that the 3D experiments can be adequately reconstructed, enabling inference-making. Moreover, it suggests that treatment variance, repeatability, and the choice of the percentile of points are highly influential over the accuracy of HTP. Conversely, flight altitude influenced the quality of reconstruction but not the accuracy of plant height estimation. Therefore, we believe that our tool can be of high value, enabling the promotion of new insights and further understanding of the events underlying the practice of high-throughput phenotyping.